by Manolis Astreinidis
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The old Great Game was the 19th century contest between Britain and Russia for influence in Central Asia, with 'lesser' players including the Ottoman Empire, Persia, Tibet, Japan, Afghanistan, Mongolia and China.
Today, there may be a new great game for influence and power in the region being played out by Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China. From late 2001, with the strong intervention of the U.S. and the EU into Afghanistan, the potential players in the game and their relative balance has changed. From this perspective, the new states of the region will be forced to align themselves, economically, politically and militarily in an environment largely established by the contest of these various powers. Through 2003, the U.S. (and allied nations) intervened in Iraq, further changing power balances in the region, with serious implications for Iran, Turkey, Russia and China.
Modern Turkey has long sought closer ties with Europe, but this has been a slow and difficult process. From 1963 it developed an associational agreement with the then EEC. During 1990-1995 Turkey has pushed ahead to enter a 'trade and tariff' agreement with the European Union. In fact, EU-Turkish relations had been at low ebb during 1997-1998, and even through 2002 at the Convention on the Future of Europe key figures such as Valery Giscard d'Estaing suggested that the EU should not join the EU, while former French foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine, declared that 'Turkey is not a European country'.
This 'westward' policy has only been partially affected by some return to accommodation of Islamic culture, which has allowed elements of Islamic education and custom to return into everyday life. At the same time, after major economic crises through 2001, as well as political scandals, and the failing heal of the Prime Minister, the coalition government collapsed through late 2002, in part due to infighting about a leader to replace Ecevit. This led to elections in which, surprising, the mildly Islamist Justice and Development Party won elections.
In the past the Turkish government has been very pro-Western, and some Middle Eastern critiques have viewed it as essentially a U.S. proxy. Furthermore, this pro-Western policy allowed Turkey to engage in trade deals with Israel, and an emerging security cooperation between Turkey and Israel, a policy which has also been widely criticised in some Middle Eastern circles. Turkey's possible role in a new regional order, with Turkey as a member of NATO, certainly has given it some leverage with both America and the EU. In future, Turkey may also be strategically important for the emerging European Security and Defence Policy.
The Turkish model is often presented as the preferred one for development for Central Asian states, an idea which has been revived in the post-2001 period. Proponents of this approach, however, often forget the poor human rights legacy of Turkey, its problems with ethnic minorities, and past claims of collusion between a powerful Turkish mafia and elements in the government. Likewise, its economy, though developing, is not strong enough to provide a major input into development in the Central Asian States. Furthermore, the almost completely secular approach of the early Turkish Republic after 1923 was so extreme that it has in the 1980s and 90s had to gradually allow some return of Islam into political life. Likewise, the state of Turkey suffered from high inflation, unwise fiscal policies and a very high foreign debt.
Recent changes in power relations (2001-2004) within Eurasia have given Turkey a strategic opportunity to increase its regional importance, but only by taking on certain risks. Turkey will need to retain economic and political stability to be strong enough to capitalise on this situation. To date, Iran and Turkey have shown signs of competition for influence, but not the large-scale intra-regional conflict suggested by the Great Game model.
Central Asia is anything, but a vacuum. In fact the 'vacuum' metaphor is a rather simplistic dynamic metaphor. As Turkey found when it hoped to capitalise on its cultural connections with the region, Central Asia is a wide and complex geographical terrain, which has an underdeveloped infrastructure, a complex ethnic, religious and political ecology, and the potential for dispersed conflict as well as nasty border incidents. All these factors mean that rather than a vacuum, Central Asia provides a thick, not easily penetrated medium for external interests. These factors have been recognized by both Turkey and Iran, both of whom have demonstrated considerable caution in recent years in their attempts to gain advantages from the region. Turkey may be able to gain some strategic advantages from the political climate inspired by the 'war on terror', but there is no guarantee that it will be viewed as a suitable model for future development.
Key questions remain to be considered for the future of Turkey:
In summary, Turkey remains a regionally powerful but troubled state, hinged between Europe, Central Asia and Middle East. Essential political and economic reform needs to continue if Turkey is to balance its hopes of future admission into the European Union alongside the maintenance of a positive international environment in the Black Sea area, Central Asia and in its relations with the Middle East.